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Today, on April 10th, the Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 5%, alongside the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. Additionally, the Bank reaffirmed its commitment to its policy of quantitative tightening.

Source: the Bank of Canada website

The Bank of Canada anticipates that the global economy will sustain its growth trajectory at a rate of approximately 3%, with inflation in most advanced economies gradually abating. Notably, the US economy has once again demonstrated its resilience, driven by strong consumer spending and robust investments from both businesses and the government. While US GDP growth is expected to moderate in the latter half of the year, it is projected to outpace previous forecasts made in January. Similarly, the euro area is forecasted to gradually rebound from its current state of weak growth. Furthermore, global oil prices have experienced an uptick, averaging approximately $5 higher than previously assumed in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Despite the rise in bond yields since January, overall financial conditions have eased, attributed to narrower corporate credit spreads and significantly higher equity markets.

The Bank of Canada has upwardly revised its forecast for global GDP growth, now projecting a rate of 2¾% in 2024 and around 3% in both 2025 and 2026. Inflation across most advanced economies continues to decelerate, albeit with expected fluctuations along the way. It is anticipated that inflation rates will align with central bank targets by 2025.

In Canada, economic growth stagnated in the latter half of the previous year, leading to an oversupply in the economy. A diverse array of indicators indicates ongoing easing in labor market conditions. Employment growth has been slower than the increase in the working-age population, resulting in a gradual rise in the unemployment rate, which reached 6.1% in March. Recent indications suggest a moderation in wage pressures.

Economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2024, primarily driven by robust population growth and a rebound in household spending. Residential investment is on the rise, buoyed by sustained demand for housing. Additionally, government spending is making a greater contribution to growth, while business investment is forecasted to recover gradually following a period of significant weakness in the latter part of the previous year. Moreover, the Bank anticipates continued solid growth in exports throughout 2024.

Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026.

In February, CPI inflation decelerated to 2.8%, as price pressures eased across a wide range of goods and services. However, inflation in shelter prices remains notably high, primarily due to increases in rent and mortgage interest costs. Core inflation measures, previously hovering at approximately 3½%, moderated to slightly over 3% in February, with 3-month annualized rates indicating a downward trend. The Bank anticipates CPI inflation to hover near 3% in the first half of this year, decline below 2½% in the latter half, and achieve the 2% inflation target by 2025.

In light of the economic outlook, the Governing Council has opted to maintain the policy rate at 5% and proceed with the normalization of the Bank’s balance sheet. Although inflation remains elevated and risks persist, both CPI and core inflation have continued to ease in recent months. The Council will closely monitor indicators to ensure the sustainability of this downward trend. Specifically, the Governing Council is closely observing the evolution of core inflation and remains focused on assessing the equilibrium between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behavior. The Bank remains steadfast in its dedication to reinstating price stability for Canadians.

Note:
The forthcoming announcement for the overnight rate target is slated for June 5, 2024. Subsequently, the Bank of Canada will release its comprehensive economic and inflation outlook, detailing associated risks, in the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on July 24, 2024.

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