September 6, 2023: The Bank of Canada announced its decision to maintain the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate and deposit rate at 5¼% and 5%, respectively.

Source: Bank of Canada

Additionally, the Bank of Canada continues its policy of quantitative tightening.

In the realm of advanced economies, inflation has shown a gradual decline, though core inflation metrics remain elevated. Major central banks are steadfast in their pursuit of restoring price stability. Global economic growth experienced a slowdown in the second quarter of 2023, primarily due to a significant deceleration in China. The property sector’s persistent weakness has eroded confidence and diminished growth prospects in China. Meanwhile, the United States witnessed stronger-than-anticipated growth, primarily driven by robust consumer spending. In Europe, growth was bolstered by the service sector, countering a continued contraction in manufacturing. Global bond yields have risen, reflecting increased real interest rates, and international oil prices have exceeded July’s Monetary Policy Report assumptions.

The Canadian economy has entered a phase of reduced growth, necessary to alleviate inflationary pressures. Economic growth sharply decelerated in the second quarter of 2023, with an annualized contraction rate of 0.2%. This decline can be attributed to weakened consumption growth, reduced housing activity, and the impact of wildfires in several regions. Higher interest rates curtailed household credit growth, affecting a broader range of borrowers. Government spending and increased business investment supported a 1% growth in final domestic demand during the second quarter. The labor market’s tightness continues to gradually ease, while wage growth hovers around 4% to 5%.

Recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicate widespread inflationary pressures. After briefly easing to 2.8% in June, CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in July, averaging around 3%, aligning with the Bank’s projections. With recent gasoline price increases, near-term CPI inflation is expected to remain elevated before subsiding. Year-over-year and three-month core inflation measures are both around 3.5%, suggesting limited recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. The longer high inflation persists, the higher the risk of it becoming entrenched, making it more challenging to restore price stability.

Given recent indications of reduced excess demand in the economy and the lagged effects of monetary policy, the Governing Council decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5% and continue the normalization of the Bank’s balance sheet. However, the Governing Council remains vigilant about persistent underlying inflationary pressures and is prepared to further increase the policy interest rate if necessary. The Council will continuously assess core inflation dynamics and the CPI inflation outlook. Specifically, they will evaluate whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing align with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank of Canada remains steadfast in its commitment to restoring price stability for the benefit of Canadians.

Important Information:
The next scheduled announcement for the overnight rate target is on October 25, 2023. The Bank of Canada will release its comprehensive economic and inflation outlook, including associated risks, in the Monetary Policy Report at the same time.

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_{Tags: Bank of Canada, quantitative tightening, global economic developments, inflation, economic growth, monetary policy, labor market, employment growth, unemployment rate, wages, productivity, CPI inflation, Governing Council, interest rate increases, price stability, economic outlook, inflation risks.}